The tariffs are not going to cause inflation. Prices are coming down.
How They Responded: "Get Ready For An Inflation Spike"
The Evidence: 2.7%, Not 6%
Inflation has an official monthly number too: the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The catastrophic spike that surveys and economists braced for — 6%-plus — never showed up in the data.
What The CPI Data Shows:
- December 2025 CPI came in at 2.7% annual — unchanged from November, and less than half the 6.6% one-year inflation consumers had expected in May. Source: CBS News / BLS
- For full-year 2025, the CPI rose about 2.7% December-to-December — roughly flat versus the 2.7% reading at the end of 2024, despite the new tariffs. Source: CBS News / BLS
- CBS News reported the tariffs "didn't reignite inflation to the extent that some economists had predicted," in part because retailers absorbed costs rather than fully passing them to consumers. Source: CBS News
The Bottom Line:
The Bottom Line
Economists and the media warned tariffs would ignite 6%-plus inflation and crush American families. It never happened — inflation held at 2.7%, right where it started. Were there costs at the margin? Every trade policy has them. But the runaway price spike they promised — the one used to argue Trump’s whole agenda would backfire — was a phantom. He was right; they panicked over nothing.
Read The Fed FindingThe Vindication: The Spike Forecast Missed
The prediction wasn't "inflation will tick up a little." It was a spike — surveys pricing in 6.6%, warnings of stagflation. Measured against that specific, quantified fear, the outcome of 2.7% was a clear miss for the doom forecast.
The tariffs didn't reignite inflation to the extent that some economists had predicted, with consumer prices rising 2.7% in December.
The Pattern:
- Consumers braced for 6.6%; the actual reading was 2.7% — the fear was more than double reality. Source: CBS News / BLS
- The Fed confirmed tariffs added real cost to goods — a genuine effect, but nowhere near the catastrophic spike that was forecast. Source: Federal Reserve (via Reason)
Final Analysis
This is a case where the honest scorecard matters more than the slogan. There is a real, two-sided story here, and we're going to tell both sides.
To be precise about what was and wasn't proven:
- The forecast inflation spike — 6%-plus — did not happen; CPI held at 2.7%
- Consumers had braced for inflation more than double what actually arrived
- But the Fed found tariffs DID add measurable cost — about 3.1% to core goods prices
- So "the tariffs caused no inflation at all" is too strong; the right claim is "the predicted runaway spike never came"
The lesson is narrow but real: a confident, quantified prediction of catastrophe — 6%+ inflation, stagflation — was made by credentialed voices, and the headline number landed less than half that high. Trump's tariffs were not costless. But the inflation spike everyone was warned about simply did not materialize.